6 Reasons England will lose the Ashes

1. Australia are sick of losing
2. England will start resting key players starting with the 2nd Test to keep them fresh for the next Ashes series at home. After 3 Tour games and the first Test at the Gabba, Andrew Strauss is likely to contend that the team is exhausted and he'd like to keep the boys fresh for the upcoming Ashes in 2012
3. Where's the motivation for England? England get to keep the urn regardless of the result. 
4. Leading up to the first Test, England have played teams that are worse than themselves. Australia have played teams better than themselves. England look better than they are, Australia look worse than they actually are.
5. Australia will blunt Swann's knack of taking wickets early in his spell by counting his overs from backwards on the scoreboard. 
6. Australia can be themselves on the field; without worrying about the BCCI threatening to call off the tour